AI Search and the Click Decline: What You Need to Know

In a blog post on August 6, Liz Reid (VP, Head of Search) argued that AI features such as AI Overviews and AI Mode are driving more queries and delivering higher-quality clicks (people who do click stay longer and engage more), while overall outbound clicks to the open web remain “relatively stable” year-over-year. She also noted that the impact varies by site type, with some formats (forums, video, original reporting) seeing growth.

What outside data says: AI summaries lower click-throughs

Independent research points to a meaningful decline in clicks when AI summaries appear:

• Pew Research Center (July 22, 2025): When an AI summary is shown, users click a traditional result 8% of the time vs 15% when no summary appears—nearly a halving of click propensity. Pew also found users end sessions more often without clicking when a summary appears.
• Similarweb (May–July 2025): Zero-click behavior has grown materially since AI Overviews launched, with reports that a larger share of searches ends without a click; one analysis pegs zero-click for AIO-triggering queries near ~80%, with broader news-publisher zero-click rates also trending up.
• Digital Content Next (May 2025): Publisher-focused analysis associates AI Overviews with lower outbound clicks to news sites, amplifying traffic pressure already facing media.
• Semrush (Q1–Q2 2025): The share of queries triggering AI Overviews rose from ~6.5% in January to ~13% by March, increasing the surface area where clicks can be displaced. Semrush also projects AI search visitors could surpass classic search visitors by 2028 if current trends continue.

Search trade coverage has consistently summarized these findings the same way: AI Overviews tend to reduce organic CTR, especially for non-branded informational queries.

Reconciling the differences

How can Google report “stable” outbound clicks while third-party studies show fewer clicks when summaries appear?

• Aggregation vs. slice: Google is looking at macro-level totals across all query types and surfaces. Independent studies often isolate conditions where AIOs appear—where the displacement effect is strongest. Both can be true.
• Distribution shifts: Even if total clicks stay near flat, who gets them can change. Forums, videos, utilities, and original sources cited in overviews may benefit while informational listicles and commodity explainers lose.
• Engagement quality: If fewer people click, but those who do are more qualified and engaged, average session value can rise even as raw clicks fall. That’s consistent with Google’s “higher-quality clicks” framing.

Where impact is largest

Across the datasets and reporting, the biggest click compression appears in:

• Non-branded informational/head-question queries (“how/why/what”) that AIOs answer directly.
• News & reference categories where a concise synthesis satisfies intent on-page.
• Queries that newly gained AIOs in 2025 as coverage expanded from ~6–8% to ~13% of results.

The Bigger Picture: A Shifting Landscape

What’s clear is that AI Overviews and other generative features are transforming user behavior. Even as Google claims the overall traffic impact is muted, these tools are shifting how people interact with search results—fewer impressions may now equal fewer clicks, but those clicks can be more meaningful. The takeaway? SEO must evolve from a click-centric strategy to one focused on visibility in AI-generated formats and building credibility where users are—whether that’s on-site or within AI summaries.

How to Adapt: Strategies for AI-Aware SEO

1. Design for citation and extraction (AEO/GEO)
   • Treat pages as sources for answers as much as destinations. Use tight summaries, definitions, bulleted procedures, tables, and high-signal headings so models can quote and attribute you. Even if clicks are fewer, brand lift and assisted conversions matter.
2. Shift the portfolio toward “click-worthy” intents
   • Prioritize content where the next step requires a visit: tools, downloads, calculators, local inventory, interactive maps, proprietary data, original reporting, or opinion. These are harder to fully satisfy in an overview and preserve click necessity. (This also aligns with Google’s comment that forums, video, and originals are faring better.)
3. Own the relationship beyond Google
   • Build direct channels: email, Push/RSS, community (forums/Discord/Reddit), and social. Zero-click can still deliver awareness; convert it by offering lead magnets, newsletters, or tools that turn impressions into owned audience. Publisher analyses recommend this as a hedge against algorithmic variability.
4. Measure the new funnel, not just CTR
   • Track impressions in AIO-affected queries, branded search lift, assisted conversions, and first-party engagement (return visits, time to subscribe). Pair Search Console with short-interval comparisons (24-hour views) to spot sudden shifts, then segment by AIO vs. non-AIO keywords using third-party sensors.
5. Target formats Google says are growing
   • Expand UGC/forum content, video, podcasts, and original data pieces that are more resilient to summary cannibalization and more likely to be featured or cited.

Bottom line

Google’s stance (more queries, better clicks) and independent findings (fewer clicks when AIOs appear) aren’t mutually exclusive—they’re different angles on the same transition. As AI summaries cover more queries, pure informational SEO will feel tighter, but visibility and value haven’t disappeared. The winners will be those who optimize for citation, ship assets that require a click, build direct audience, and measure success beyond CTR.